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COVID-19: Nigeria may see up to 39,000 cases – Lagos govt

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Traced 2,395 persons out of 2,649

Says 352 contacts exited 14 days isolation period

By Chioma Obinna

The Lagos commissioner for health, Prof Akin AbayomiFriday, said that Lagos State may be seeing up to 39,000 cases of COVID-19 in the state, going by the number of cases imported into the country already.
The Commissioner also disclosed that the State Government is tracing 2,649 persons out of which 2,395 persons have been reached.
Disclosing these during a press conference in Lagos, the Commissioner said not less than 352 contacts have exited the 14 days of the isolation period.
Abayomi who was reviewing how the State has fared so far in terms of numbers said: “Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos.”
He added that if everyone practices good social distancing, the figure will be limited to 13,000.
“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further,” he said.
He said the figures were small, compared to outbreaks around the world.
“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasis to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing.
“Looking at the same time frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere nears what Spain, Italy, and Iran are showing.
Still giving details of the data already generated, he explained that “at two or three weeks of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran, and Spain had more than 20,000 cases. So, we are doing something right in the state,”
He said the state government would be interestingly watching the data over the next week
“The total number of cases we have now in the centre is 37 and six remain on the ship. We will be finding ways to evacuate them.
Also, 70 percent of the patients are male and 30 percent are female, one infant, and a young person under 30 years. We have above age 60 years too.
Again, 82 percent of the cases are imported and 14 percent are direct contact, while we have no idea where 2 percent contracted it from.

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